van Opheusden B, Galbiati G, Kuperwajs I, Bnaya Z, Li Y, Ma WJ (2023)
Expertise increases planning depth in human gameplay
Nature 618, 1000–1005. DOI:
doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06124-2
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Behind the paper:
looking back on thinking ahead
Commentary: Gobet F
and Waters AJ, Searching for answers: expert pattern recognition and planning, Trends in Cognitive
Sciences
When I had just started my NYU job in 2013, I pitched a project to incoming Ph.D. students. It was a wild new
direction for me: using board games to understand how people think ahead. Bas van Opheusden took on the
challenge. Have you ever wondered what makes chess grandmasters so good at the game? The science of expertise
in chess is almost 75 years old, starting with Adriaan de Groot's beautiful
PhD thesis. De Groot, and later Simon & Chase,
linked chess expertise to pattern recognition. But what about thinking ahead? Could it be that experts are
better because they plan further into the future? It's complicated.
Some studies support deeper planning
by chess experts, some don't. We believe the problem is the complexity of chess. Building computational models
for human chess play is really hard, so studies mostly use verbal reports. We tried to find a game that's
simpler than chess, but complex enough that planning 5-6 steps into the future is sometimes necessary. Our
answer: four-in-a-row, a variant of tic-tac-toe and Go-Moku (五子棋). Four-in-a-row turned out to be the perfect
paradigm. The rules are easy but it's remarkably fun, and calculating multiple moves ahead pays off. Play
against the computer
here. We
collected data from people playing 4-in-a-row against each other or against custom-designed computer
opponents. We had to develop
new statistical
methods to fit our computational models, and run the computer cluster for an insane amount of time. We
found a robust increase in planning depth with expertise. Also in the paper: eye tracking, a time pressure
manipulation, and replication in large-scale naturalistic data. Thanks to Bas, we have also started lots of
collaborations based on this paradigm.